Rural Groundwater – Improved Understanding Of Climate, Economic And Regulatory Effects
Presenter: Zoey Reed-Spitzer1
Co-Author(s): Mekha Pereira, Laura Condon
Advisor(s): Dr. Bonnie Colby
1Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Arizona
Prolonged drought and groundwater use exceeding natural recharge threaten long-term water supply reliability in southeastern Arizona. Rural communities, farmers, other businesses, and landowners in groundwater-dependent areas are disproportionately affected by threats to their groundwater as they have limited options to adapt. Economic, demographic, climatic, and regulatory factors influence groundwater conditions, and understanding these patterns is important for rural community resilience and sustainable water management planning. Past studies analyze influences on groundwater use decisions. However, groundwater pumping data is not available in many parts of the world, especially in much of rural Arizona. There are numerous political, legal, and technical factors that inhibit the requirements and accuracy for reporting groundwater use outside of Arizona’s regulated areas (Active Management Areas (AMAs) and Irrigation Non-expansion Areas (INAs)). Groundwater level data (depth to water) is more widely attainable and may be a useful proxy for groundwater use. This study examines the usefulness of groundwater level data in understanding linkages between groundwater conditions and economic, demographic, climatic, and regulatory factors. Groundwater is an essential water source in rural Arizona. Preliminary work finds significant statistical relationships between groundwater levels and economic, demographic, climatic, and regulatory factors in portions of Arizona’s Santa Cruz and San Pedro watersheds. This project will refine and extend this work into other rural regions of Arizona over the period 2010-2022. The statistical models utilize groundwater level data in specific Arizona sub-basins, along with climate, regulatory and economic indicators. The paper concludes with key findings and implications for sustainable water management.